The AP News, CNN, NBC, ABC, Nytimes, The Washington Post, and many other news outlets have said that Biden has won America’s presidential elections. Conservative outlet Fox News has not. UPDATE: Fox News has declared Biden the winner as well now. Extreme right outlets like Breitbart are saying the election was a fraud. Trump continues to declare himself the winner.
Most people in America have begun to believe the other side lies and cheats. Biden supporters have confirmation bias saying Trump is lying about voter fraud and trying to steal the election. Trump supporters have confirmation bias saying Democrats had illegal votes. Neither side will believe the other.
Polarization and division in America has led to deep distrust. It is my opinion that America’s foreign enemies have used history’s oldest war strategy of divide and conquer to successfully accomplish the first half of that technique.
Whichever side of the divide you personally find yourself on, think about how the other side feels. I am a libertarian / Republican but I voted for Biden. If I was a Trump supporter and believed what Trump says, then I would believe he won the election but Democrats are illegally trying to defraud him of it. Most of the military, police, militias, and heavily armed rural areas in America are Trump supporters. If I put myself in their shoes, I could see that they may think violence is justified to make sure Trump’s supposed electoral win is respected. If you are a Trump supporter, try to imagine that you believe Trump is a chronic liar and fraud who is trying to steal a legal and open election. Both sides are willing to use violence and possibly outright war to guard their winner.
People in America have become deeply entrenched in their positions and have very high levels of anger at the other side. Many people are in a bubble where they know very few people who support the other side.
We are at a greater risk of civil war in America now than at any time since the end of our last Civil War. The only way I see war being avoided is if one leader capitulates or one side chooses to trust in the local election mechanisms over their chosen leader. My guess is most Democrats dislike Biden and will trust local elections, but I think most Republicans may trust Trump over any local politicians and election processes.
I think it is unlikely, but Trump himself may concede and go back to the good life of golf and media appearances.
I think the total odds of civil war are relatively high, but it is unlikely on an absolute basis… Maybe 3-5% change over the next 60 days.