Politics & Economics

I think it takes a long time for politician’s policies to affect the economy. And policies that do affect the economy short term are usually like a kid eating sugar… might make them feel good for a few minutes, but makes them sick long term. Social security / Medicare made everyone feel good when it came out, but will harm our country eventually. Trump’s tax cuts made some people richer in the short term, but they greatly increased our debt which is going to have to be repaid by my kids one day. It’s the same thing as going to get a payday loan every week… you can buy more toys now, but you will be poorer for many years in the future. I think we need very low taxes, and very low spending. But you can’t have very high spending and very low taxes… that’s like working at McDonald’s and buying a Mercedes on your credit card. It just doesn’t work.
The stock market is not the economy. It’s a hype machine where big traders push certain stories in the media to make everyone fearful or greedy, and the big traders buy when everyone reads scary articles and sells their stock for too low prices, and then sell when everyone gets greedy and reads articles about stock going straight up. Billions are made from gullible retail traders every year this way.
Avoid being burned by the game by not watching the news on TV and carefully selecting sources for data. Only buy and sell based on actual economic data. Here are some of my data sources I watch for the macro economy (for micro economy, I look at actual stock by stock revenue, profits, etc):

USD to EUR

USD to AUD – Longer USD to AUD chart

Global debt soars to 356% of gdp

AVC’s take – “How this ends”

Great first comment on AVC’s take… this ends with US hyperinflation

Stock prices at historical high of 185% of GDP

Oil prices last 50 years

Lyn Alden newsletter November 2020

Order size

  • Best trading day is Tuesday (lowest spreads since less liquidity risk to market makers). Worst is Mondays and days before holidays and Fridays.

  • Larger order sizes pay a higher liquidity cost

Stocks and liquidity…

Sector weights

Country list of debt to GDP

Moving averages

Half the stock market’s rise is due to QE according to Societe Generale

Quantitative easing effect on interest rates

Google Finance

Market Cap To GDP – Buffet “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”

Stocks vs Commodities

Bloomberg commodity index

Federal government tax receipts

Federal debt as percent of GDP

Fed reserve balance sheet

Commercial and industrial loans USA

Fed economic indicators

Russel Investments economic indicators

Cost of servicing debt lowest ever?

Bloomberg economic investors

Price to sales:

S&P 500 PE

Shiller PE 

Inflation supposedly very low… f

Unemployment 13.3% May 2020

Bond yields at an all time low

US new home sales

National debt to gdp2020

Historical inflation in US

US real retail sales

World co2 emissions

Money stock

US GDP Growth

US GDP

US National debt


Also – you can be much happier by just not watching TV at all.

Published by

Joel Gross

Joel Gross is the CEO of Coalition Technologies.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *