Debunking Conspiracy Theories

I have a few conspiracy theories myself and see many others daily. Debunking conspiracy theories can be done with Hanlon’s Razor.

Hanlon’s Razor says never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity or neglect.

For example, if a doctor prescribed the wrong medicine to your child, they are not secretly trying to kill your child. They probably just didn’t pay attention or maybe they are not intelligent.

Occam’s Razor Applied to Prisons

Jeremy Bentham had an interesting idea. How can we apply Occam’s Razor to prison systems?

Occam’s Razor is a theory which says the simplest explanation is the best.

Jeremy Bentham thought that applying this to prison systems means that we should prevent more suffering than we cause through penalties.

For example, jailing a murderer for life might make sense as preventing another murder would save a lifetime of suffering. But jailing a food thief for five years prevents very little suffering while causing a large amount.

American Immigration Policy

In 1939, a boat of 900 persecuted Jews fleeing Germany arrived in the United States and asked for refuge. They were turned away. After trying and failing to get refuge in several other countries, this ship had to return to Europe. It is now known as “The Voyage of the Damned” as 254 of those people were murdered in the Holocaust.

Many times when someone criticizes America, another person will say, “Just go live somewhere else if you don’t like it here.” I agree with that sentiment. I don’t think anyone should be locked into the country they have the fluke of being born into. Imagine how quickly dictatorships would fall if open borders were allowed. People would just leave until the dictator had no support left, then revolution would be easy. Imagine how many more brilliant people could start businesses or make new scientific discoveries if they were free. The world would be a much happier and freer place.

The image below of a migrant who had hoped to make a better life for his family and drowned trying to avoid ICE has moved many people.

We are an immensely wealthy nation that could help all of these South American migrants multiplied by thousands and it would not change our GDP one percent. We have a moral duty as people lucky to be born free in a rich country to help others less fortunate. The only difference between turning away the boatloads of Jews fleeing Hitler and sending them back to their deaths, and the migrants now is the name of the dictator and the ethnicity of the refugees. People in 1941 said “not my problem” too. Millions died.

Pepsi vs Coke is an agree to disagree situation. Sending desperate migrants fleeing murderous dictators back to their home countries is most emphatically not.


Also, for those of you who claim to be Christian:

Exodus 22:21 “You shall not wrong or oppress a resident alien; for you were aliens in the land of Egypt.”

Deuteronomy 24:14-15 You shall not oppress a hired worker who is poor and needy, whether he is one of your brothers or a foreigner residing in your cities. You will pay his wages on that day, before the sun sets (for he is poor and needs the money), lest he cry out against you to the Lord, and you are guilty of sin.

Deuteronomy 1:16 Give the members of your community a fair hearing, and judge rightly between one person and another, whether citizen or resident alien.

Leviticus 19:34 The alien who resides with you shall be to you as the citizen among you; you shall love the foreigner as yourself, for you were foreign in the land of Egypt: I am the Lord your God.

Leviticus 25:35 If any of your people become poor and unable to support themselves among you, help them as you would a foreigner or stranger, so they may continue to live among you.

Leviticus Deuteronomy 27:19 Cursed is anyone who withholds justice from the foreigner, the fatherless, or the widow.

Zechariah 7:9-11 This is what the Lord Almighty said: ‘Administer true justice; show mercy and compassion to one another. Do not oppress the widow or the fatherless, the foreigner or the poor. Do not plot evil against each other.’

Jeremiah 22:3 Thus says the Lord: Do justice and righteousness, and deliver from the hand of the oppressor him who has been robbed. And do no wrong or violence to the resident alien, the fatherless, and the widow, nor shed innocent blood in this place.

Malachi 3:5-6 “I will be quick to testify against sorcerers, adulterers, and perjurers, against those who defraud laborers of their wages, who oppress the widows and the fatherless, and deprive the foreigners among you of justice, but do not fear me,” says the Lord Almighty.

Ezekiel 47:22 You shall allot it as an inheritance for yourselves and for the foreigners who reside among you and have begotten children among you. They shall be to you as citizens of Israel; with you they shall be allotted an inheritance among the tribes of Israel.

Job 29:15-17 I was eyes to the blind, and feet to the lame. I was a father to the needy, and I championed the cause of the stranger. I broke the fangs of the unrighteous, and made them drop their prey from their teeth.

Matthew 25:35 I was hungry and you gave me food, I was thirsty and you gave me drink, I was a stranger and you welcomed me.


https://mobile.twitter.com/deAdder/status/1143931384265883650

Humans Are the Best AI

Until humans are replaced as a species by machine intelligence, humans will be the best and most efficient artificial intelligence. It takes the same amount of calories to operate a 60 light bulb as it does to run a human body for a day. Humans are incredibly efficient at turning calories into intelligence. Even when machine intelligence surpasses us in total intelligence, humans will still probably be more efficient. I think this is why for most of human history slavery was a accepted practice. I think we are in a short period without slavery (although arguments can be made about wage slavery), and I think it will return again at large scale. This would happen if energy became more scarce either through us using up resources or regulating heavily the use of resources we have. Now that I think about it more, maybe slavery won’t make a comeback because energy is just too prolific. I do think that human intelligence will continue to dominate until true AI comes.

Traitor

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/28/us/politics/trump-putin-election.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

There are many instances of Trump putting his personal gain ahead of America’s interests. This is another one of them.

Also, President Jimmy Carter thinks Trump was put in office by the Russians. https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/450877-jimmy-carter-trump-only-won-in-2016-because-of-russian-meddling?amp&__twitter_impression=true

War Is The Worst Horror

I think that the best thing Donald Trump has done during his presidency was to retract his decision to bomb Iran. 15 years ago I would never have said this.

I have been reading about the Eastern front in world war II. I cannot imagine worse horrors then what happened there.

Thousands of villages were burned for civilians in them. Fathers had to watch daughters and wives be raped as an every day occurrence. People froze to death, starve the death, and were murdered in the millions. Human life was completely worthless. You could be killed on nothing more than a small suspicion or if you an into sadist (and the war made a LOT of sadists). This went on for years and years.

The number of dead boggles the mind, it’s beyond anything any of us can understand. Over 70 million died. How many is 70 million? University of Michigan has the biggest stadium in the world, seating 110,000 people. Imagine their stadium full to the brim with people, then everyone getting murdered. Then refill it and murder them all again. And again. Again. 700 times. That is still extremely hard to understand the enormous quantity.

In Germany alone, an entire generation of men ages 16 to 32 died. When the Russians took Eastern Germany two million women were raped, sometimes for years. When the Germans were taking territory in Russia, they killed millions of people and brutally repressed populations.

Or think of it this way – if every fourth person in the United States present day was killed. You probably know around 1200 friends and family. Picture 400 of them murdered.

Modern war is not a war of heroics like movies make it seem. An individual cannot make much change at the scale that war happens now. World war II was won by sheer factory output and better logistics to get millions of tons of weapons, ammo, food, gas, etc to the front lines. Germany’s military was crushing all opponents until they overextended their supply lines at Stalingrad and their elite Sixth army ran out of gas literally. A tank can’t do anything without gas. People can’t fight without food. They had the surrender. The Russians sent all the prisoners of war to a gulag where hundreds of thousands of men were murdered. Only 5,000 men ever made it home from those gulags.

Americans have an idealized vision of war as how the movies portrayed it full of heroes. The Japanese and Germans however after world war II were extremely anti-war because they had seen their cities burnt to the ground, mother’s raped and murdered, and starvation on a massive scale. The Russians bore the brunt of the war, Americans many times don’t realize that D-Day was not launched till AFTER the Russians had retaken thousands of miles and actually were in Germany itself. The Germans only had old men and young boys using old equipment without much fuel in France and on the Western front. We did not experience the full horror of war, it was thousands of miles from our country and even though we still had tens of thousands of men die, it was nowhere near the tens of millions of soldiers and civilians on the Eastern front.

If you visualize yourself as a father of children in Eastern Europe, as a soldier on the front lines of an immense meat grinder, or as a woman of any station during this time and think about what it was truly like, you will shudder in horror.

There is a very good reason why after world war I the league of Nations was started, and why after world war II the United Nations was started. Everyone on the planet recognized the absolute horror that war had wrought. We have had 70 years of peace and prosperity now, but all the people with real memories of world war are dead. Now we have war mongers and conspiracy theorists and other idiots pushing as hard as they can for a new global war.

We should stop glorifying war and be extremely sober and serious. If an evil leader like Hitler rises again we need to crush them early. Don’t wait till they are at the head of armies, it would be better to assassinate an individual then to see millions of innocents die again. It is far better to have restrictive international organizations like the EU and the UN that have power to limit nations then to risk war.

Pet Conspiracy Theory – Voting Machines Compromised

I have a pet conspiracy theory that voting machines are compromised as are the people who count votes. This is probably done by enemies of freedom such as Russia, Saudi Arabia.

I strongly believe voting machines and every person’s voting record should be public and easily verified by the people who voted themselves.

Trump Trade War Damages American Business

American companies are now moving a lot of research and development and production out of the United States due to uncertainty in our country. They are afraid they would be blocked from doing business with other countries or have to pay high tariffs that make their products uncompetitive.

This trade war will lead to a long term recession in the United States.